Will China's technology surpass America's?

中国的技术会超过美国吗？

【美版知乎quora问答】

Rod L'Huillier, Lived and studied in China for 6 years
Answered Fri
Will China's technology surpass America's?
It depends in what area and to consider that culturally these countries are very different.
It’s likely that China will overtake the US in the application of technology in society. This is already evident in social media, social sharing, and ride sharing simply due to the disposition culturally and the sheer scale of the market.

译文来源：三泰虎网站

这取决于你什么领域的技术

中国的社交应用技术可能会超过美国。社交媒体、社会共享、共享单车已经证明，市场规模庞大。

Social media
Already China has 791 million internet users vs 291 million in the US. China will naturally become more advanced in this area, but will anyone outside of China want to use that technology, I’m not sure. Regardless, even if they don’t go global, they can still have a larger user base, and within one market, one culture and one jurisdiction that favors them enormously. Facebook, etc, has to operate across jurisdictions and cross cultures making maintaining/gaining similar market scale difficult in comparison.

社交媒体

中国网民人数7.91亿，美国网民人数为2.91亿。显然，中国在社交媒体这一领域上自然更具优势，不确定外国人是否会使用中国社交媒体。无论如何，即使并不走向全球，它们仍可以有庞大的用户基础，在单一市场、单一文化和单一司法管辖之内，对他们极其有利。相反，脸书等需要跨越不同的司法权和文化，以维持/获得相当的市场规模。

I would also argue that WeChat, AliPay, Taobao, as just three examples, are more intuitive and more advanced that western counterparts.
So my personal opinion is that China will win the implementation race, but maybe not the innovation race.

微信、支付宝、淘宝，仅这三个例子，就比西方同类产品更方便使用，更先进。

我个人认为，中国会赢得执行力的竞争，但不是创新竞争。

Space
China does well, but considering most of the major problems are already solved and that knowledge is freely available, then it’s only money and time, trial and effort.
I’m sure China, India, and the US will each make substantial leaps in that area. There’s unlikely to be a number one.
This year NASA plans to land on Mars, and perhaps even Space X will get close too. Both events likely to kick renewed interest in space with a busy schedule of events from all space countries in the next decade.

空间技术

中国空间技术表现不俗。大部分问题已经解决，知识可以免费获取，剩下的是金钱、时间、以及尝试的问题了。

中国、印度和美国会在这一领域各自取得实质性进展，谁会第一，很难说。

今年，美国宇航局计划登陆火星，就连太空探索科技公司（Space X）也跃跃欲试。未来10年，这可能重新激起人们对太空的兴趣。

Transport systems
China appears to be streaking ahead of everyone with it’s HSR. But only in scale. Technology leaps in the coming years will make HSR look dated, yet it will be affordable at scale and perhaps China will be quite successful in the global mass transit developments.
As for technology, Japan, Germany and the US will be the ones to watch. Branson and Elon Musk being the first ones to keep an eye on.

交通系统

中国高铁独步全球。不过只是规模无人能比。未来几年的技术飞跃，会让高铁过时。在全球范围来看，公共交通的发展，中国或许会相当成功。

技术方面，日本、德国和美国将成为关注焦点。布兰森和伊隆·马斯克将成为第一批被关注的对象。

（注：布兰森=维珍创始人；伊隆·马斯克=SpaceX CEO）

China will have a homegrown aircraft soon, one of the few countries to do such. Yet, it will have to make a huge leap in engine development/propulsion systems to challenge the US, EU, UK, or Russia.
That leap will be hypersonic I’m sure. The US seems to have the lead on hypersonic flight, but maybe not, Beijing Power Machinery Research Institute, Chinese Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, and the Chinese Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation are all planning test flights between 2020–30.
Boeing’s vision for hypersonic passenger flight looks so cool!